Reported impacts include three fatalities and numerous injuries at locations south of Port Hedland. They would have had a “blue hole” overhead for a while and that would have been the worst of it. Approximately 13% of the reef were exposed to Cyclone Yasi, from Cairns to Townsville (ABC, 2011).Marine specialists from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) initial damage assessments found that Cyclone Yasi had left varying levels of destruction to 300km of 2400km-long reef (ABC, 2011). The storm which started in the Coral Sea , destroyed hundreds of homes in the northern Queensland towns of Tully , … It was among the most powerful recorded cyclones to have hit the Queensland coast. Contrary to Ken’s statement,Larry was not as strong as Yasi,and it was moving at about the same speed in its last half day until landfall. val majkus put me onto checking the wind speeds as measured at the weather centres. That doomed pearling fleet would have moved north or south with ease. Val; stop peddlig other people’s muses and do your own observations. Or was it a “normal” event with “normal” consequences? Australia BOM said Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is approaching the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing in the vicinity of Pardoo Station around 2-3pm this afternoon. “the event was well monitored nationally and internationally by meteorological organisations”. No one can convince me Ken goes beyond a couple of decades with superior knowledge to what we get with those images from space. Winifred became a cyclone on 27 January 1986, about 450 km north of Cairns. Another La Niña event caused major damage to Queensland when Tropical Cyclone Yasi crossed the north Queensland coast in February 2011, destroying homes, crops and businesses. I even drive in them. The storm was roughly the same strength as Cyclone Larry but took longer to pass. I understand it really has not much in the way of correlation to the Posts here, but it indicates in some way the relative size of the eye. Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi directly impacted the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and parts of Australia, while parts of Fiji and Papua New Guniea were indirectly impacted. “The nearest wind recorder didn’t go past 185Km/hr,therefore the cyclone was not as intense as claimed” is the confident assertion…. Get yourself some radar imagery or just a satellite shot will do. Daydream, South Molle and Hayman islands were affected. The cyclone hit early in the morning, and when it crossed the coast – hitting the northern beaches of Cairns it was a Category 2 cyclone. the little protusion to its south is Clump Point,and Dunk island can be seen partly hidden by the black numerals at the bottom of the frame. congrats on getting published. Arlington Reef just offshore Cairns has seen stronger winds. If a hypothetical fleet was working between Ingham and Cairns they would have moved north to the least dangerous side of the track. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says there is a 94 per cent chance of La Nina conditions in 2020-21, bringing the risk of a worse-than-average cyclone season. The Australian BoM warning for northern Queensland is being couched in stronger language as Cyclone Yasi has intensified to category 5. No lives were lost and no serious injuries were reported. As for the damage, we are not finished assessing it yet. Tie yourself to a tree or somethin. On the 10 March 1918, when Innisfail, Qld, was hit by a cyclone, it was a town of 3,500 people. SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT … It’s not a matter of ‘true belief’,simply concrete evidence,John. The storm passed between the two big cities of Cairns and Townsville which only suffered minor damage. A pearling fleet-not that they exist nowadays-working in remote waters with a mothership would be equipped for weeks at sea,and would be moving large distances as a matter of course. The information, advice and warnings system was first class.  One person died when they were poisoned by fumes from a portable generator. The cyclone is considered to be the worst natural disaster in Australia’s history. They’d have full radar and satellite gear.They’d be moving to avoid the projected tracks days in advance. Nott’s work puts into perspective current debate about whether climate change is responsible for the extreme weather events in Queensland. Tropical Cyclone Alby passed close to the southwest corner of WA on 4 April 1978, killing five people and causing widespread but mostly minor damage to the southwest. Estimates of central pressure and highest average wind speed were made by various international agencies using satellite data and well-proven models.The ensemble average was 912 hPa and 131knots,six hours out from landfall,while BOM kept its advised intensity at Cat 5 and 930 hPa right up until landfall. Following the disaster, just 12 houses remained. The intense central zone of the cyclone slipped between the closest two other reef observation stations-themselves 150km apart- that stayed intact. A Cyclone Warning is issued by BoM when gales or stronger winds are expected to hit within 24 hours. Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi began developing as a tropical low northwest of Fiji on 29 January 2011 and started tracking on a general westward track. 1978 – CYCLONE ALBY (Category 4) Several Indonesian fishing vessels were reportedly sunk by the cyclone in the vicinity of Ashmore Island, with at least four lives lost. by Ken Stewart Another La Niña event caused major damage to Queensland when Tropical Cyclone Yasi crossed the north Queensland coast in February 2011, destroying homes, crops and businesses. Going north, Lucinda has been hit heavier – as at 3.30am winds 113 gusts 145 down from peak winds 132 gusts 170 @ ~12.30am. Earlier in Justin’s lifecycle, 30 people were killed in Papua New Guinea and five people died when their yacht was destroyed. http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.main&radar=192&numberofImages=10&dateStart=0&dateFinish=0, http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.main&radar=212&numberofImages=10&dateStart=0&dateFinish=0, All the latest videos of Yasi can be found on the following hub: By analysing ridges of broken coral pushed ashore by storm surges, he has catalogued the incidence of super-cyclones over the past 5000 years. I notice the much vaunted storm surge was mercifully much weaker than predicted too. Cyclone Ingrid was unusual in that it impacted three states and territories in March 2005. Understanding long-term variability in the occurrence of tropical cyclones that are of extreme intensity is important for determining their role in ecological disturbances1, 2, 3, 4, 5, for predicting present and future community vulnerability and economic loss6 and for assessing whether changes in the variability of such cyclones are induced by climate change7. You’re full of shit. In a paper published in the scientific journal, Nature in 2001 his research shows the frequency of super-cyclones is an order of magnitude higher than previously thought. And the Meeja have not had a field day? Many houses were damaged or destroyed, including 200 Housing Commission homes. 2005 – CYCLONE INGRID (Category 4/5) Both parties have failed to press for at least a few more well-rated cyclone shelters,despite the best of intentions immediately after Larry. But really,since these were not working craft with people LIVING on them,and the only means of transport in a wilderness of water and tropical coast,they are not a modern analog of the BB fleet. This was the cyclone we were told was 800km wide! Observations made by the BoM in recent months has shown that a 0.8C drop in water temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean has affected sea winds between ... including Tropical Cyclone Yasi… Lucinda observations PROVE that hurricane force winds extended at least 50km out from the eye. The lessons we learned from those earlier Cyclones aided here in making this one less of a drama than those earlier ones. I didn’t think it was all that well monitored. I’m not at all sure whether this image will show up here at this site. Over the weekend, . These features occur along 1,500 km of the Great Barrier Reef and also the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia. BoM severe weather meteorologist Kevin Parkyn said the remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Anthony moved over northern Victorian and southern NSW yesterday. Lua is the strongest cyclone to strike Australia this year and the strongest since Cyclone YASI hit Queensland last year, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said. It seems that in the mad rush to get the most dramatic footage, they will go, and also do, what the general public were advised not to do. The combined effects of heavy rain, large seas and gale- to storm-force winds caused widespread damage in the region between Cairns and Townsville and the loss of two lives. Are you saying Jim Davidson is a liar and ordering his monitoring team to fabricate data. Just remember that eye-walls are mostly not vertical. And that it is nowhere near Lucinda. And so she should be as she carries the responsibility for the state.  Early estimates of damage put the cost at about AU$100 million. 1975 – CYCLONE JOAN (Category 5) Australian Government Geoscience, 2013, Hazards– What is a Cyclone? 1970 – CYCLONE ADA (Category 4) We also don’t know how many if any chose to sail the 200km to Cairns or Bowen. Also, if you’d been in Lucinda at 1 am you’d probably have been looking at a starry sky. His conclusion I think you got it right with the latex gum. 930hPa guarantees windspeeds of 250km/h plus. The storm which started in the Coral Sea, destroyed hundreds of homes in the northern Queensland towns of Tully, Mission Beach, Innisfail and Cardwell. a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment. The citizens of Townsville had been told that category five tropical cyclone Yasi was so vast a system it would take many hours for the worst of the wind and rain to pass. Yasi was a large cyclone with damaging The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says there is a 94 per cent chance of La Nina conditions in 2020-21, bringing the risk of a worse-than-average cyclone season. MEGA CYCLONE YASI: Forecast Track Map (BOM) Map legend. here’s the historical list of worst cyclones from http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/journal/timeline-australias-worst-cyclones.htm It’s reasonable to accept that Carwell copped the brunt of the storm and Lucinda is only 40km down wind from there. The information, warning and planning were first class – you lot are just sooking there’s not a few hundred dead so you could get up the system about that. Rainfall exceeded 60 mm (2.36 inches) in one hour and pressure had fallen to near 938 millibars. Actually, I’ve noticed the media being careful, mostly, to not try linking this event to AGW, even if they do hype it up a bit. A total of 14 people died as a result of Category 4 Cyclone Ada, that caused severe damage to resorts on Queensland’s Whitsunday Islands in January 1970. Cyclone Yasi was a very large (~700 km wide) Category 5 cyclone that impacted the central-northern region of Queensland and large areas of the Great Barrier Reef shelf in early February 2011. 2006 – Cyclone Larry crossed the north Queensland coast near Innisfail as a Category 4 system on March 20, 2006. Here's a condensed version of the latest update from the BOM... At 4pm Cyclone Yasi was located 250 kilometres east of Cairns and 275 kilometres north northeast of Townsville. Then, after those others in the 70’s, we became better prepared, in the way of buildings etc, knowledge about what they can do, and what we, as humans needed to do to be prepared. , The rainforest around Mission Beach was flattened by the cyclone. The Bureau of Meteorology says Cyclone Yasi will be a severe category three or four cyclone when it crosses the Queensland coast, likely early on Thursday morning. Don’t you possibly think that it is not good for people to believe that this was the ultimate storm? “What the record shows is we go through extended periods, hundreds of years, of high activity and extended periods of little activity,” Nott says. The north Queensland town of Tully is a scene of mass devastation with roofs torn from houses and power poles knocked over by the powerful cyclone.But Yasi’s fury has been felt hundreds of kilometres away, in Cairns to the north, and Townsville to the south, and all the places in between. Looking at the latest current obs (3.30am Qld) at the BoM clickable map. That expert assessment is not credible? The total damage cost was estimated to be in excess of $20 million. Yep,I’ve noticed some rusted-on BOM haters attempting their usual schtick. Yasi ranks as one of the most powerful cyclones to have crossed the coast of Queensland since 1918 (BOM, 2011). This is the highest level on the Seffir-Simpson Scale and Category 5 is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 155 mph (69 m/s; 135 kn; 249 km/h).. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO45 KNOTS BY 301800 UTC. Since the eye did not go over Lucinda,their would have been no opportunity to see stars. Pleasure craft for part time sailors in a marina are not the priority that commercial vessels are. What pathetic crap John. But the system is not expected to be as bad as that which brought Cyclone Yasi and the devastating south-east floods in 2011. The good news seems to be that no one got hurt this time. Tropical Cyclone Yasi. Yasi is one of the most powerful cyclones to have affected Queensland since records commenced. POSITION POOR. The ensemble of estimates using the Advanced Dvorak Technique put out 127 to 140knots for maximum sustained winds. Cyclone Tracy’s eye,with central pressure of a ‘mere’ 950hPa, passed over Darwin Airport and wind gusts were recorded to 217km/hr before the anemometer broke.Its radius of gale force [34-40knot] winds was only 50km. Bottom: cyclone storm surge. 1918 – CYCLONE MACKAY (Category 4) Here we determine the intensity of prehistoric tropical cyclones over the past 5,000 years from ridges of detrital coral and shell deposited above highest tide and terraces that have been eroded into coarse-grained alluvial fan deposits. …. Yes John, 99 knots [183kph] at around midnight and then easing but rising to 97 knots at 2.30 am which says it all. It looks like Lucinda’s ability to measure rain was compromised as well…or it was blowing horizontally and the Venturi effect sucked the precip out. MEGA CYCLONE YASI: Forecast Track Map (BOM) Map legend. The eye with wind speeds over 280 km/hr (Category 5) passed over Mission beach which is 110 km south of Cairns, 165 km NNW of Townsville and 130 km north of the wyloyard.  Damage to power lines left 150,000 homes without electricity. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Brisbane said that at 5am AEDT Yasi was about 650 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns and 650 kilometres northeast of Townsville moving west southwest at 30km/h. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/link-between-extreme-weather-and-co2-unproven/comments-fn558imw-1225999006574. Is his ‘defensible’ estimate of windspeed for sustained winds,or gusts? 1986 – CYCLONE WINIFRED (Category 3) QUEENSLAND Premier Anna Bligh has finally described Mega Cyclone YASI as a “frightening and catastrophic” cyclone telling a quarter of a million residents in the projected path of the storm they only have three hours left to run for their lives. Yasi followed a path predicted four to five days out. 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